Mets' trade deadline outlook: Here's how industry sources expect they'll play it (2024)

MIAMI — With a week until the July 30 trade deadline, two things will dictate how aggressively the New York Mets act: Their performance and how the market shapes up.

People within the club prefer to continue to add, which is logical because the Mets remain firmly in the wild-card picture in a tightly packed National League.

But that stance must continue to make sense from a competitive standpoint. There also have to be enough clubs willing to part with players. Executives from multiple clubs said several teams are still making exploratory calls while trying to decide which direction to go.

Under Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, the general consensus around the league is that the Mets are looking for ways to improve without sacrificing much of their future.

Below is a breakdown of where things stand for the Mets regarding the trade deadline based on conversations with league sources.

Pete Alonso

The Mets have told interested teams that it’s unlikely they will trade slugging first baseman Pete Alonso, league sources said.

That should come as little surprise. The Mets (50-48) headed into Monday’s game in a three-way tie for the third wild-card spot. And though Alonso is an impending free agent, he’s a crucial part of their lineup as a homegrown star.

Though there’s an industry perception that the Mets’ leadership group will consider all options, people familiar with the matter said that it’d be unlikely New York deals Alonso even in a scenario in which it stumbles a bit before the deadline.

The bullpen

If the Mets stay in playoff contention, they will look to add to their bullpen, but it would be surprising if they traded top prospects for a rental reliever, league sources said.

There are a few reasons such an approach could make sense for the Mets even though their bullpen is sorely in need of help, industry sources said.

When he led the Milwaukee Brewers, Stearns generally refrained from trading top prospects for big-time rental relievers.

There are a couple of examples of trades involving Stearns acquiring a reliever who worked out for the Brewers. In 2018, they acquired righty Joakim Soria from the Chicago White Sox for Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Soria, who had a $1 million buyout for a mutual option in 2019, had a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings for the Brewers. The next year, Stearns acquired Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Mauricio Dubon. Pomeranz had a 5.68 ERA working as mostly a starting pitcher for the Giants but moved to the bullpen for the Brewers and produced a sparkling 2.39 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

One example that did not work out for Stearns: In 2021, the Brewers acquired lefty Daniel Norris from the Detroit Tigers for right-hander Reese Olson. At the time, people within the Brewers liked Olson, but he was not rated especially high as a prospect. He ended up blossoming in Detroit. Norris, on the other hand, had a 5.89 ERA in 36 2/3 innings with Detroit and was worse in Milwaukee (6.64 ERA in 20 1/3 innings).

Those types of trades are more likely representative of what the Mets might do if they look to upgrade their bullpen.

Of course, Stearns is no longer in Milwaukee, and he’s operating in a different world with Steve Cohen as owner.

Since the Mets are looking for ways to improve without sacrificing much from their future, another trade similar to the acquisition of reliever Phil Maton for the Tampa Bay Rays would be a realistic expectation. In that trade, the Mets absorbed Maton’s salary. Other relievers fit a similar description. From a purely speculative standpoint, Toronto Blue Jays reliever Chad Green, for example, is signed beyond this season with a salary of $24 million across 2024 and 2025.

In the meantime and as depth, the Mets have internal options they may try out in the bullpen after making recent waiver pickups.

In the minor leagues, starter Brandon Sproat has garnered serious hype as a breakout candidate after excelling with High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. But it’s more likely that he stays in the minor leagues for 2024, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking.

The rotation

League sources indicated that despite the expected return of Kodai Senga this week, the Mets would be reluctant to deal from their starting rotation unless they get an offer that they deem too good to pass up.

Senga, who is expected to make his season debut Friday after lingering on the injured list since February, should help the Mets, but he doesn’t change their depth because they plan to utilize a six-man rotation.

Beyond Senga, the Mets’ rotation includes Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Christian Scott, David Peterson and Luis Severino. Quintana and Severino are set to be free agents after the season. Manaea holds a player option for 2025.

The Mets could deal from the group and be OK. They could summon Tylor Megill from the minor leagues or move Jose Buttó into the rotation from the bullpen. But Buttó has performed well in a bullpen that needs him. And removing any starter hurts the Mets’ depth in a rotation where workload across the group remains a significant question in the second half.

A handful of contending teams need starting pitching, so it would not be surprising to see the Mets listen with an open (if reluctant) mind.

The outfield

The Mets could upgrade their bench, particularly because of the lack of offensive production without Starling Marte (knee), whose status remains murky despite starting baseball activities over the weekend.

Since Marte’s last game on June 22, the Mets have a 0.0 fWAR in right field — replacement level value — using a combination of Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart. The way some within the club see things, the production there has been sort of a wash, though. The offense was better with Marte — .698 OPS in right field with him, .650 OPS from right field without him — but the defense has been better without him.

In theory, the Mets would have an interest in upgrading the total production from right field, but league sources indicated that the cost might be too high. Generally speaking, it’s tougher to add at such positions at the deadline without giving up valuable prospects.

Players with club control

Some of the biggest names generating buzz this deadline include players under club control such as outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and pitcher Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox and outfielder/second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Miami Marlins. Could the Mets get involved? Other clubs may be able to offer better packages; it has not been a banner year for the Mets’ farm system in regards to health and production. But given Stearns’ creativity in the past with trading for players under club control — Christian Yelich is the most well-known example — nothing should be ruled out.

(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Jim Rassol / USA Today)

Will Sammon is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the New York Mets and Major League Baseball. A native of Queens, New York, Will previously covered the Milwaukee Brewers and Florida Gators football for The Athletic, starting in 2018. Before that, he covered Mississippi State for The Clarion-Ledger, Mississippi’s largest newspaper. Follow Will on Twitter @WillSammon